by Lion S. & Boots M.
Abstract:
There has been a renewed controversy on the processes that determine evolution in spatially structured populations. Recent theoretical and empirical studies have suggested that parasites should be expected to be more "prudent" (less harmful and slower transmitting) when infection occurs locally. Using a novel approach based on spatial moment equations, we show that the evolution of parasites in spatially structured host populations is determined by the interplay of genetic and demographic spatial structuring, which in turn depends on the details of the ecological dynamics. This allows a detailed understanding of the roles of epidemiology, demography and network topology. Demographic turnover is needed for local interactions to select for prudence in the susceptible-infected models that have been the focus of previous studies. In diseases with little demographic turnover (as typical of many human diseases), we show that only parasites causing diseases with long-lived immunity are likely to be prudent in space. We further demonstrate why, at intermediate parasite dispersal, virulence can evolve to higher levels than predicted by non-spatial theory.
Reference:
Lion S. & Boots M. (2010) Are parasites "prudent" in space? Ecology Letters. 13(10): 1245-55.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{LionBoots2010,
Author = {Lion, Sébastien and Boots, Michael},
Title = {Are parasites "prudent" in space?},
Journal = {Ecology Letters},
doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01516.x},
Volume = {13},
Number = {10},
Pages = {1245-55},
som = {pub/LionBoots-PrudPar-2010-SOM.pdf},
URL = {pub/LionBoots2010.pdf},
abstract = {There has been a renewed controversy on the processes
that determine evolution in spatially structured
populations. Recent theoretical and empirical studies
have suggested that parasites should be expected to be
more ''prudent'' (less harmful and slower transmitting)
when infection occurs locally. Using a novel approach
based on spatial moment equations, we show that the
evolution of parasites in spatially structured host
populations is determined by the interplay of genetic
and demographic spatial structuring, which in turn
depends on the details of the ecological dynamics. This
allows a detailed understanding of the roles of
epidemiology, demography and network topology.
Demographic turnover is needed for local interactions
to select for prudence in the susceptible-infected
models that have been the focus of previous studies. In
diseases with little demographic turnover (as typical
of many human diseases), we show that only parasites
causing diseases with long-lived immunity are likely to
be prudent in space. We further demonstrate why, at
intermediate parasite dispersal, virulence can evolve
to higher levels than predicted by non-spatial theory.},
keywords = {space, dispersal, virulence, evolution of social traits},
year = {2010}
}